LBA:01:13 Baseline predictors of mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus and two-decade trends in causes of death: an 860-patient retrospective cohort

Objectives To identify clinical and serological predictors present at the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) associated with mortality, and to describe the distribution of causes of death, assessing potential temporal changes over the past two decades (pre-2014 vs post-2014) overall and according to lupus nephritis (LN) and ethnicity in a retrospective cohort of 860 patients.Methods Contingency tables were constructed for qualitative variables, and their distributions were compared using chi-square or likelihood-ratio tests, as appropriate. Associations between each baseline variable and mortality were evaluated using logistic regression models, reporting odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (OR, 95% CI). A multivariable logistic regression model was also fitted, including variables with p less than 0.10 in bivariate analyses plus age at diagnosis.Results In bivariate analyses, higher mortality was associated with leukopenia (OR 2.72; 95% CI 1.91–3.88), thrombocytopenia (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.48–3.43), serositis (OR 2.23; 95% CI 1.59–3.13), central nervous system involvement (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.44–3.13), and proteinuria (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.19–2.39). Anti-Ro negativity was also associated with higher mortality (OR 2.03; 95% CI 1.41–2.93). In the multivariable model, independent associations were observed for proteinuria (p=0.0023), leukopenia (p=0.0019), thrombocytopenia (p=0.0038), rash (p=0.0083), serositis (p=0.0017), anti-Ro (p=0.0195), and age at diagnosis (p