APCU25OS3 Development of surevalves calculator to calculate operative survival and mortality probability using timely manner and echocardiography parameters for patients underwent heart valve surgery

Introduction Heart Valve Disease shares different pathologies than the other heart diseases requiring open heart surgery. This study is the first study in Asia to predict operative survival and mortality risk within time-range using echocardiography parameters for heart valve surgery, utilizing SUREvalves calculator derived from this study.Methods Consecutive adult patients who underwent heart valve surgery from year 2021-2024 were included and scored for the mortality predictors. A total of 127 patients meeting inclusion criteria with 18.7% mortality, 45% single valve surgery (SVS) and 46% multiple valves surgery (MVS). Significant variables including echocardiographic parameters were scored and modelled using multivariate cox regression to find the probability formula of operative survival and mortality risk within 3 days, 7 days, and 15 days of heart valve surgery.Results MVS and SVS poses different complexities and pathology, 2 distinct formulas were developed for probability of operative survival and mortality of MVS [(y= (2.763*RV_dilatation) +(3.597*CABG)+ (0.641*TRVmax)+ (3.280*multiple_procedures)+ (-.024*GFR)], and SVS for aortic and mitral valves. TAPSE, RWT, LVMI, Urgent and Gender were parameters for SVS (both aortic and mitral), with additional parameter LVOT diameter for SVR in aortic and PVaccT for SVS in mitral valve, significantly influence the probability of operative survival with AUC 0.78, P=0.002 [y= (0.745*TAPSE) + (1.368*Urgent) +(2.047*Gender) + (2.581*SC) + (1.644*RWT) + (-0.010*LVMI) + (-2.299*LVOTdiam*invole_aorta) + (-0.045*involve_mitral*PvaccT)]. Whereas Right ventricular (RV) dilatation, concomitant CABG, more than 3 valves procedure, TRVmax and GFR significantly influence the operative survival probabilities in MVS with AUC 0.84, p