Where there’s smoke (less), there’s fire: viral oral nicotine pouch content on TikTok and market growth

OBJECTIVES: The emergence of viral memes about oral nicotine products (ONPs) on TikTok is concerning, as popular content on a youth-centred platform may motivate youth use. We investigate when the viral emergence of (ONP) TikTok videos occurs in relation to accelerated growth of ONP sales. METHODS: We used NielsenIQ aggregated US sales data to identify sales growth inflection points from 1 January 2021 to 28 October 2023 and TikTok's research application programming interface (API) to collect ONP-related videos posted during the same time frame. Video view counts were aggregated at the same 28-day intervals as sales data to identify viral spikes in views. Joinpoint regression identified the timing of any key inflection points in the sales data. RESULTS: ONP content first emerged in an initial viral spike in views between September 2022 and January 2023 (14.4% of views), followed by a second between July and October 2023 (80.9% of views). Joinpoint regression identified a single inflection point where the average percentage change across the 4- week period significantly increased from 2.94% to 6.22% in April 2023, following the first spike and preceding the second. CONCLUSIONS: Following >3 years of steady market growth, a viral spike in TikTok views precedes a significant acceleration in ONP sales followed by a larger spike in views. Although further research is needed to determine whether TikTok views offer a reliable predictor of period-to-period sales, our findings suggest that spikes in specific content signalling effective penetration of youth subcultures may be indicative of acute market changes.