Unlocking systemic safety dynamics in construction: a fuzzy cognitive mapping framework for leading indicator analysis

Successful proactive construction safety management is hampered by limited understanding of dynamic and nonlinear causal inter-relationships among leading indicators. Traditional analyses often overlook systemic influences, preventing effective strategy. This research introduces a novel fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) application, a robust method adept at modeling complex systems, to investigate interdependencies among 24 identified safety leading indicators and their influence on incident occurrences. Integrating expert insights (Delphi survey and focus groups) with FCM analysis, this study reveals unprecedented insights into systemic safety behavior. Key findings include quantifying multi-directional interdependencies, elucidating complex indirect causal pathways and critical feedback loops, and identifying dynamic leverage points. The model further enables nuanced intervention prioritization by demonstrating how the collective interplay of factors drives system-wide safety outcomes. This work provides a framework for dynamic indicator analysis, laying crucial groundwork for developing advanced tools like maturity models, offering actionable insights to optimize safety and foster proactive cultures.