Institutional complementarity and the export effects of forest certification in global wood markets

The growing adoption of forest certification reflects a global shift toward more sustainable forest management and trade. Yet, the trade impacts of certification remain uneven, shaped by how these voluntary standards interact with national legal and regulatory environments. This study explores the conditions under which forest certification influences wood product exports, with a particular attention to the concept of institutional complementarity, where private standards and public laws reinforce each other. Using an extended gravity model of bilateral trade, the analysis integrates certification data with indicators of forest laws and legality-focused trade regulations. The results suggest that certification is more likely to support export performance when implemented within countries that possess coherent legal frameworks and effective enforcement mechanisms. In contrast, weak institutional alignment may reduce the benefits of certification or even hinder trade. These findings highlight the importance of regulatory coherence in realizing the trade potential of sustainability initiatives and point to the need for more context-sensitive approaches that consider the institutional realities of both exporting and importing countries.