Is Crime a “Root Cause” of Central American Emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Considering El Salvador's role as a key source of migrants from Latin America and its high crime rates, this paper examines the Bukele administration's 2019 to 2024 crime policy. Despite prior declines in homicide rates, a surge in violence prompted the declaration of a state of emergency in March 2022, leading to mass arrests of suspected gang affiliates and a significant reduction in homicides. Using monthly data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection and applying difference-indifferences and synthetic control methods, our findings show a significant decrease in illegal migration from El Salvador following the implementation of the crime policy, with reductions of up to 60% between March 2022 and February 2024. Results from subgroup analyses show that the effect is more pronounced for individuals in the family units. These findings offer insights into the role of security concerns in shaping migration dynamics and highlight potential policy options to address migration challenges.