DO INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS AFFECT THE PRODUCTIVITY OF INCUMBENT FIRMS OR NEW ENTRANTS?

This study examines the heterogeneous effects of industrial robots on firm productivity by establishing a comparative framework between new entrants and incumbent firms. Using the quantity and value of imported robots as our primary measures, we find that the application of industrial robots significantly enhances firm-level total factor productivity (TFP): a 10% increase in robot quantity raises TFP by 0.23% ([Formula: see text]), while a 10% increase in robot value increases TFP by 0.06% ([Formula: see text]). More importantly, we identify a substantial productivity gap: the benefits for new entrants are 0.012 and 0.003 percentage points lower for robot quantity and value, respectively, compared to incumbent firms. These core findings are robust to a series of sensitivity checks, including alternative variable definitions, controlling for robot manufacturer effects and addressing endogeneity concerns. Mechanism analysis further reveals that robot adoption enhances TFP primarily by strengthening R&D capability and intensifying market competition among incumbent firms. Mechanism analyses reveal that the application of industrial robots enhances TFP primarily through strengthening R&D capability and intensifying market competition, with incumbents better positioned to leverage these complementary channels. Our findings provide micro-level resolution to the “productivity paradox” debate by demonstrating how aggregate effects mask significant distributional consequences across.