CHINA’S AGING POPULATION AND ITS EFFECT ON GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Household consumption has become a primary contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Population aging influences the scale and structure of consumption, which in turn affects GHG emissions both domestically and internationally through complex global supply chains. Despite the importance of this demographic shift, the impact of China’s aging population on global and national GHG mitigation efforts remains unclear. This study estimates and analyzes the effects of changes in China’s age structure on both the global GHG footprint and the disparities in GHG emission trends across countries from 2010 to 2020, with projections extending to the 2020–2030 period. Our findings indicate that China’s aging population reduced the global GHG footprint by 188.14 Mt CO 2 -equivalent from 2010 to 2020 and is projected to further decrease emissions by 142.90 Mt CO 2 -equivalent from 2020 to 2030. These reductions vary significantly across countries, influenced by trade volume with China and differences in sector-specific emission intensities. China’s aging demographic has a substantial impact on the global GHG emission landscape, offering insights for policy formulation aimed at addressing the dual challenges of aging and climate change.