ANALYSIS OF LAND USE AND LAND COVER DYNAMICS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY IN METEKEL ZONE, ETHIOPIA

Understanding the dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) is crucial for assessing environmental impacts on household food security in Ethiopia’s Metekel Zone. This study analyzes spatiotemporal LULC trends and drivers from 1993 to 2023 using multitemporal Landsat imagery processed within Google Earth Engine (GEE). Classification was performed using machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and Support Vector Machine), supported by spectral indices (NDVI, SAVI) to evaluate ecological implications. Results indicate a significant transformation: agricultural land expanded by over 40%, driven predominantly by population pressure, agricultural investments, and resettlement programs. However, this expansion entails significant ecological trade-offs, including soil degradation, biodiversity loss, and hydrological disruption, threatening long-term agricultural sustainability. Concurrently, intensifying land use has exacerbated inter-communal conflicts, displaced thousands and severely disrupted farming activities. These intertwined environmental and social stressors have heightened local vulnerability. Consequently, food insecurity prevalence stands at 21.5%, substantially exceeding the national average, underscoring a critical paradox where agricultural intensification undermines food security. The findings highlight an urgent need for sustainable land management strategies that balance agricultural production with environmental conservation. Additionally, livelihood diversification and climate-resilient farming systems are essential to reduce vulnerability. This research provides evidence to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward integrated approaches that enhance food security and promote sustainable development in the Metekel Zone.