Improving Precision in Cluster-Level Pricing Experiments with Temporal Switchbacks

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Authors: Nicolás Ferrari-Ortiz, Sebastián Orellana-Montini, Timur Abbiasov, Rutger Lit, Timur Abbiasov
Cited by: 0
References: 24

Abstract

Online pricing systems often cannot randomize treatments at the user level because prices are deployed over operational units such as routes, regions, or markets. This creates low-powered A/B tests due to persistent cluster heterogeneity, seasonality, and autocorrelated demand. We study temporal switchback designs for cluster-level pricing experiments, where each cluster alternates between treatment and control over time. Using LATAM Airlines ancillary-pricing data and calibrated simulations, we show that switchbacks can substantially reduce standard errors relative to parallel cluster designs. We further characterize how switching cadence interacts with temporal dependence, highlighting when daily or weekly switchbacks are preferable. The results provide practical guidance for experimentation in pricing and transportation platforms where fine-grained randomization is infeasible.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Advanced Causal Inference Techniques Optimal Experimental Design Methods Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing

Publication details

Journal / source
ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (CIKM)
Pages
7085–7089
Publication date
3 November 2026
Language
EN