Multimetrics Assessment of Explicit Hail Size Prediction Using Two‐ and Three‐Moment Microphysical Schemes for a Severe Hailstorm in Northeastern China

At midnight on September 30, 2021, a severe hailstorm swept over northeastern China, producing egg‐sized hail over Dalian Airport, causing damages to more than 40 aircrafts and imposing tremendous pressure on operational capacity of the airport. The explicit hail prediction skills of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are investigated using different multi‐moment microphysics schemes, that is, Milbrandt–Yau (MY) and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) two‐moment, and NSSL three‐moment schemes. Simulated variables, including the radar reflectivity, maximum estimated size of hail (MESH), and cloud‐top temperature (CTT) are verified against radar, satellite, and available reports. Results indicate that the general evolution of the hailstorm system is well‐reproduced by the simulations. Additionally, substantial differences are present for the explicit hail prediction across the schemes. Specifically, the MESH values predicted by MY and NSSL two‐moment scheme are significantly overestimated, reaching approximately 60 mm. In contrast, surface hail size distribution by NSSL three‐moment scheme aligns most closely with the actual observations. Furthermore, total mass for cloud, rain, and hail within simulated hailstorms produced by two‐moment schemes are all substantially larger than that by three‐moment scheme. This indicates that the fixed shape parameters for hydrometeor in two‐moment schemes can lead to excessive hail growth microphysical processes and size sorting of particles. The findings establish valuable references for operational forecasting of severe hail events, providing a scientific basis for aviation safety early warning.