Predicting Photovoltaic Panel Performance: A Comprehensive Model for Dust Accumulation and Rainfall Impact

The adoption of photovoltaic (PV) technology for energy generation is expanding rapidly, yet performance losses caused by environmental factors such as dust accumulation and rainfall remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a novel and comprehensive model for predicting the power output of PV panels by integrating three distinct sub‐models: one for estimating hourly dust accumulation, another for predicting dust removal during rainfall events, and a third for calculating the resulting power output. Unlike previous studies, this model precisely accounts for the dual impact of dust deposition and rainfall cleaning, which has often been oversimplified or neglected. Using 1464 h of meteorological data (61 days), the model demonstrates that rainfall can significantly reduce accumulated dust, thereby mitigating power losses. Specifically, 23 h of light to moderate rainfall removed approximately 57% of the dust, decreasing power losses from 8.82% to 3.6%. Furthermore, the model highlights that light rainfall, even with minimal dust accumulation, can still reduce performance—an aspect rarely considered in past research. This model provides a valuable tool for better predicting PV panel performance under varying environmental conditions, offering significant implications for PV system operation and maintenance, particularly in dust‐prone areas.