Is Performance Warranty an Effective Predictor of Photovoltaic (PV) Module Lifespan? Evidence and Reasoning

The longevity of photovoltaic (PV) systems is pivotal to their economic viability and positive environmental impact. It has a bearing on such metrics as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), energy return on investment (EROI), and carbon intensity. Traditionally, the expected lifespan of PV modules is inferred from manufacturer performance warranties, which typically guarantee a minimum power output over 25–30 years. However, evidence is emerging of an overreliance on warranties that may in turn be causing an overestimate of module longevity. A number of important factors are being overlooked, including degradation mechanisms, environmental stress, and market dynamics. This paper critically examines the limitations of performance warranties as lifespan predictors, identifying discrepancies between warranty‐based predictions and observed field data. It highlights issues significantly influencing real‐world PV performance. Additionally, a trend of early module replacement is becoming apparent, driven by technological advancement, financial incentive, and weather damage. These findings underscore the need for improved lifespan models that integrate empirical degradation data across varied conditions and account for market and environmental factors. More accurate lifespan predictions will enhance the sustainability and economic planning of PV deployment.