Establishment and Evaluation of a Prediction Model for Concomitant OSA in Metabolic Syndrome Patients Undergoing Proposed Bariatric Surgery Based on Real‐World Data Study

Objective To retrospectively analyse the risk factors for the complication of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and to establish a predictive model and also to validate the accuracy of the model. Methods The hospitalisation information of MetS patients undergoing bariatric surgery admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology, the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, from November 2023 to March 2025 was retrospectively collected, of which 166 cases from November 2023 to August 2024 were used as the training set and 100 cases from September 2024 to March 2025 were used as the validation set. The clinical data of the patients in the training set were used to screen the independent risk factors for concurrent OSA in MetS patients who were proposed to undergo bariatric and metabolic surgery (BMS), to build a prediction model and evaluate the model using ROC curves and then to verify the accuracy of the model using the clinical information of the patients in the validation set. Results The training set analysis showed that age, hip circumference and nocturnal minimum oxygen concentration were independent risk factors for the complication of OSA in patients with MetS, and a logistic model was constructed as Logit ( p ) = 22.394 + 0.078 ∗ Age + 0.105 ∗ Hip Circumference‐0.413 ∗ Nocturnal Minimum Oxygen Concentration. Conclusion The prediction model constructed on the basis of age, hip circumference and nocturnal minimum blood oxygen concentration has a high predictive value for concurrent OSA in patients with MetS who are proposed to undergo BMS and can be used as a clinical screening aid.