Analysing Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Africa

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious disease that primarily affects small ruminants such as sheep and goats. Since first emerging in Africa, it has rapidly spread throughout the continent, causing significant mortality and posing a serious threat to livestock production and food security. In this study, we integrated diverse datasets using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and employed the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to identify key drivers influencing the distribution of PPR outbreaks in Africa. Our comprehensive analysis provides critical insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of PPR transmission, identifying shifting patterns of geographic spread, temporal clusters, and factors contributing to outbreak emergence and persistence over time. Based on existing research data, the results indicate a notable shift in the epidemic's center of gravity from northwestern to southeastern Africa, offering strategic direction for future surveillance and control efforts. This study to understand and predict the distribution of PPR in Africa will help to develop a targeted surveillance program and analyze the trend of PPRV prevalence in Africa, which is important for the eradication and prevention of PPR.