Understanding the (Re)emergence of Military Rule in the Coup Belt

Abstract This study focused on the (re)emergence of military governments in a region of Africa that has earned the name ‘coup belt’. It is based on a data set of coups in 14 sub-Saharan African countries between 2003 and 2024, and using a process-tracing approach it examined the reasons for the frequency of military coups in these states. The data was subjected to critical discourse analysis and the discourse-historical approach. The study posits that the determination of the correct deployment of a state sovereignty is often made by the citizenry, based on their diagnosis and choice of appropriate solutions. But it also shows that the expression of popular will is sometimes subdued and the outcomes are more populist than rational. As incomplete democracies, these fragile polities, fraught with intrasystemic crises, are vulnerable to conflict and competing global interests, which include resource extraction, opening them up to power grabs by elites and military dictatorships. The study concludes that in spite of the debilitating effects of military regimes on nation-states, there are opportunities that citizens can seize to change the narrative.