The Religious Legitimacy Trap: the Taliban’s Theocratic Governance and the Logic of Religious Policy after 2021

Abstract Since the Taliban’s return in August 2021, religion has again become the organizing principle of Afghanistan’s political order, with Islamic ideology serving as the ontological foundation of Taliban state-building rather than merely a source of mobilization. Drawing on the “Religious Legitimacy Trap” ( RLT ) framework, the article explains why external pressure, rather than inducing moderation, has reinforced theological rigidity and the centralization of clerical power. Based on analysis of official decrees and media discourse, the study traces how international sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and non-recognition reshape the Taliban’s legitimacy strategy, pushing the regime toward heightened religious institutionalization. It identifies a self-reinforcing feedback loop between external exclusion and internal sacralization of authority. While this dynamic may stabilize rule in the short term, it forecloses pathways to reform and deepens structural stagnation. The analysis invites a reconsideration of how legitimacy and resilience are constructed in authoritarian systems under sustained external pressure.