The Spatio-temporal Coupling Coordination and Driving Factors of Population Agglomeration and Urban Resilience

This study employs a coupling coordination model to explore the coupling coordination level of population agglomeration and urban resilience in 31 provinces of China from 2006 to 2022. Furthermore, grey relational analysis and spatial Durbin model are utilized to investigate the internal and external driving factors that affect the coupling coordination. The main findings are as follows: (1) The overall level of population agglomeration in China has remained relatively stable, while urban resilience has exhibited a steady upward trend. Both indicators are markedly higher in the eastern region compared to other regions. Although the central region demonstrates a higher degree of population agglomeration than the northeast and western regions, its urban resilience is relatively low. (2) The coupling coordination degree between population agglomeration and urban resilience has steadily improved, and it has moved from serious imbalance to mild imbalance. Spatially, the coupling coordination exhibits a descending gradient from the east to the central, northeast, and western regions. (3) Internal driving factors display significant regional heterogeneity. In the eastern region, enhancing economic and infrastructure resilience is of critical importance. In the central region, priority should be given to the improvement of ecological resilience. In the northeast and western regions, efforts should focus on promoting population agglomeration and strengthening both economic and social resilience. Among the external driving factors, marketization level, human capital, and technological innovation all play a promoting role, while government intervention acts as a hindrance. Notably, human capital and technological innovation generate significant positive spatial spillover effects, while improvements in marketization and heightened government intervention tend to produce negative externalities in neighboring regions.