Toward Improved Understanding and Attribution of Large-Scale Circulation Changes and Associated Extremes: Challenges and Opportunities

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2026 Open access

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Authors: Kirsten L. Findell, Chaim I. Garfinkel, June‐Yi Lee, Erik Behrens, Leonard Borchert, Lei Cheng, Annalisa Cherchi, Leandro Baltasar Diaz, Andrea J. Dittus, Stephanie Fiedler, Erich Markus Fischer, Alexia Karwat
+13 more Yukiko Imada, Fei Luop, Shoshiro Minobe, Suyeon Moon, Scott Osprey, James S. Risbey, Tiffany A. Shaw, Doug M. Smith, Andrea Karin Steiner, Zhuo Wang, Maureen Anyango Wanzala, Jonathon S. Wright, Jeong-Eun Yun
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-26-0009.1
Cited by: 0
References: 66

Abstract

In July 2025, two ongoing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) initiatives held a joint science meeting in Busan, South Korea: the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) and Large Ensembles for Attribution of Dynamically-driven ExtRemes (LEADER), an activity of the Core Project Atmospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (APARC). The EPESC (Findell et al. 2023) and LEADER communities are working together to improve understanding and attribution of dynamical drivers of extreme Earth system events, how those drivers are changing in a warming climate, and how this understanding can be leveraged to improve seasonal-to-decadal prediction. Among the in-person participants (Fig. 1) were 29 early career scientists (ECSs).

Fields of Study & Subjects

Climate variability and models Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations Climate Change and Environmental Impact

Publication details

Journal / source
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume
107
Issue
4
Pages
E778–E787
Publication date
3 March 2026
Language
EN