A Dynamic Approach to Building Energy Evaluation under Climate Change

Abstract Climate change has become a critical driver of energy policy and building performance assessment worldwide. In response to rising greenhouse gas emissions and increasing energy demand, the European Union introduced the energy performance certificate (EPC) system in 2002 to standardize and promote energy efficiency in buildings. However, conventional EPC assessments are still based on static weather inputs such as typical meteorological year (TMY) data, which overlook the growing influence of climate variability and long-term warming trends. This study proposes a dynamic simulation framework that incorporates both global warming and interannual climate fluctuations into building energy evaluations. Using 45 years of fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data (1979–2023) and EnergyPlus simulations of a standardized residential building in Korea, we quantify how external climate dynamics affect heating and cooling demand. Results reveal that short-term variability often exceeds the energy impacts of four decades of warming, with spatial differences influenced by topography and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. These findings highlight the limitations of current EPC methodologies and underscore the need to integrate both gradual and dynamic climate influences into future EPC frameworks to ensure more resilient energy planning. Significance Statement This study introduces a dynamic framework for building energy evaluation that explicitly incorporates both global warming and natural climate variability. Using four decades of reanalysis data and EnergyPlus simulations, we demonstrate that interannual fluctuations, such as those driven by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can have a stronger influence on heating and cooling demand than long-term warming trends. These results highlight critical limitations of current energy performance assessments that rely on static weather data. By showing that both gradual warming and short-term variability significantly affect building energy use, our work provides a pathway toward more climate-responsive building energy policies and certification schemes, ensuring resilience in a rapidly changing climate.