Evaluation of Climate Risk Assessment in Subnational Climate Action Plans for the Agriculture Sector in India

Abstract Climate risk assessments are crucial to inform actions for adaptation and guide funding at multiple levels. The paper evaluates the climate risk assessment (CRA) approach—how climate risks are identified and subsequent adaptation actions are prioritized—within India’s subnational State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC) for the climate-sensitive agriculture sector. Using our developed analytical framework—the “Climate-Risk Informed Adaptation Action Assessment” (CRIAAA)—a qualitative content analysis was conducted along three components: science-informed, engagement and social inclusion, and adaptation planning for SAPCCs of two Indian states, Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Our comparative analysis reveals that although risk assessment gets incorporated into the planning, there is still scope to make them robust, backed by stronger scientific evidence, while integrating the local-level (district and below) insights as opposed to the current orientation toward analyses at coarse spatial levels. These course scales of analysis do not match well with the localized nature impacts of climate change, with insufficient attention to localized vulnerabilities, cross-sectoral integration, gender-disaggregated data, and multistakeholder engagement. A holistic risk assessment approach is needed—one that integrates cross-sectoral collaboration, addresses physical drivers through climate system understanding and multimodel projections, and incorporates socioeconomic dimensions via participatory methods and gender considerations.