Navigating Rising Waters: Applying Protection Motivation Theory to Communities Facing Recurrent Flooding along the Shunganunga Creek

Abstract Floodplain communities face persistent and compounding challenges as climate change and urban development increase the frequency and severity of flooding events. This case study examines how residents living near the Shunganunga Creek floodplain in Topeka, Kansas, perceive recurring flood risks and respond to current communication strategies. Using 11 semi-structured interviews analyzed through reflexive thematic analysis, we identified four major themes shaping risk perception: socioeconomic inequities, proximity and lived experience, competing hazards, and community dynamics. We then applied Protection Motivation Theory to evaluate how threat and coping appraisals shape residents’ ability and willingness to take protective action. Findings reveal that residents often recognize flood risk but lack confidence in their ability to respond effectively, citing financial, informational, and emotional barriers. We argue that existing flood messaging, such as the “Turn Around, Don’t Drown®” campaign, does not adequately address the realities of highly vulnerable floodplain populations. We recommend community-driven, locally tailored communication that builds trust, strengthens coping efficacy, and leverages existing social networks to enhance preparedness. These insights offer practical pathways for refining flood risk communication in urban floodplains and emphasize the broader need for communication strategies that adapt to evolving climate risks.