Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States

Abstract The U.S. agricultural landscape is ever-evolving, with uncertainty in future losses driven by cropland exposure interacting with a changing weather and climate risk landscape. Among these weather hazards is hail—currently the third-costliest peril affecting crop production in the United States. This research employs a combination of historical and future projection cropland layers, observed severe hail reports, crop-hail insurance data, and output from convection-permitting climate simulations to demonstrate the interrelationship between changing cropland exposure and hail risk during the twenty-first century. Impacts of weather hazards on buildings, infrastructure, and other societal assets are driven by an expanding exposure footprint, and agricultural systems may follow similar trends in some U.S. regions. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation reveal that, while Midwest cropland is most exposed to hail, the Great Plains contain the highest vulnerability based on the collocation of an extensive hail footprint during the summer growing season and the expansion of cropland. Despite projected decreases in severe hail days in the Great Plains, the increase in regional cropland exposure illustrates the “expanding bull’s-eye effect” concept within the context of agriculture, highlighting that disaster potential (i.e., major crop yield loss) is not solely determined by the total area of cropland; rather, it is how croplands are distributed across the landscape that defines how risk and vulnerability are realized in a major crop loss scenario. Results from this research may inform data-driven decision-making efforts and risk communication across the agricultural community, including stakeholders in crop insurance, sustainability, and other pursuits in regional climatology. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to understand how the crop-hail risk landscape may change through the twenty-first century. The agricultural landscape continuously evolves, with increasing uncertainty in future losses driven by cropland exposure interacting with a changing weather and climate risk landscape. Results indicate regional variation, as the Great Plains face the greatest exposure-driven risk, reflecting the “expanding bull’s-eye effect” in an agricultural context. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South may undergo hazard-driven loss increases despite negligible change in cropland extent. These findings highlight the need for proactive, regionally tailored adaptation strategies, offering a novel basis for understanding future crop-hail risk.