Sentencing Along Procedural Fault Lines: The Implications of Mandatory Minimum Thresholds for Sentencing Research, Theory, & Policy

Despite most sentencing variance being explained by legal factors, most sentencing research continues to focus on extralegal factors. While the focus on extralegal characteristics is warranted, it has left the larger part of the sentencing story understudied. Leveraging methamphetamine trafficking laws and data, this study employs descriptive and multivariate analyses to unpack the consequences of mandatory minimum thresholds. Results show that the case fact Congress draws mandatory minimum eligibility upon triggers a selection effect where formal rationality increases, sentencing outcomes become uniquely patterned, and assumptions underlying multivariate effects begin to falter. Research along this line will (1) demonstrate that legal relevance depends on circumstance, (2) highlight needs in data capacity, and (3) reveal shortcomings associated with current reforms.