Major Power Rivalry and Wedge Strategy of Concessions

Military alliances are an important feature of major power competition. One way for a major power to increase its relative power is to drive a wedge in a rival’s alliance. Why and when does a major power do so? I propose a theory of strategic opportunity, which holds that a major power seeks to drive a wedge in the rival’s alliance by offering economic aid to a rival’s protégé when that country experiences a rapid deterioration in its relations with its patron. I test my theory on major power rivalry dyads and find empirical support for my argument on a set of directed dyad-year observations between 1960 and 2010. The findings contribute to our understanding of alliance politics and strategic considerations behind using economic carrots in major power rivalry.