Global, regional and national burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer attributable to occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: A finding from the global burden of disease study 2021 and Mendelian randomization

Background: Occupational exposure to carcinogens remains a significant public health concern, contributing to the global burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers. Understanding the past and future trends of these cancers due to occupational risk factors is crucial for effective prevention and policy implementation. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, this study aims to quantify the global, regional, and national burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers attributable to occupational carcinogens and project the burden to 2050. Additionally, a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis is conducted to explore potential causal relationships between several risk factors and these cancers.Methods: We extracted data on tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers caused by occupational carcinogens from the GBD 2021 database, analyzing mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across different regions and countries. The exponential smoothing and the autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict the disease burden up to 2050. MR analysis was performed using genome-wide association study (GWAS) data to investigate the causal relationship between specific risk factors and cancer outcomes.Results: The global burden of occupational carcinogen-related tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers showed significant regional disparities, with the highest disease burden observed in industrialized nations and regions with high occupational exposure. While mortality rates have declined in some high-income countries due to improved workplace safety and smoking reduction, certain low- and middle-income countries continue to experience rising trends. The projection model indicates a potential shift in disease burden, with some regions expected to experience a plateau or decline, whereas others may see an increase due to occupational exposure persistence. MR analysis revealed significant causal relationships between selected occupational and genetic risk factors and cancer incidence, further supporting their etiological role.Conclusion: Despite progress in occupational safety, the burden of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers attributable to occupational carcinogens remains substantial, particularly in low- and middle-income regions. Future projections highlight the need for targeted interventions, stricter occupational health regulations, and continued monitoring. Integrating genetic risk factors through MR analysis provides additional insights for precision prevention strategies.