Priming the pump: Does Black and Hispanic gentrification predict White gentrification?

The discourse on gentrification, which centers on reinvestment in disadvantaged communities, often focuses on the influx of White residents into low-income Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. However, scholarly opinions diverge on the attractiveness of communities of color to White gentrifiers. This study aims to address this debate by utilizing US Census and American Community Survey data to identify the racial/ethnic factors influencing White-driven gentrification across the United States. Our findings indicate that neighborhoods that are at least 50% Black and have experienced gentrification by middle- or upper-income Black residents are more likely to see subsequent White gentrification. However, this “priming” effect weakens as the share of Black residents increases. In contrast, predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods, whether previously gentrified or not, have a chance of White gentrification. Only in neighborhoods with very high Hispanic populations does prior Hispanic gentrification significantly increase the likelihood of White gentrification.