Transit Visa-Free and Inbound Tourism: City-Level Evidence from China

While visa facilitation has attracted increasing academic attention, few studies have examined city-level spatial spillovers. This study evaluates China’s 144-hour transit visa-free policy via a staggered difference-in-differences framework with spatial analysis. The results show that the policy significantly increases inbound tourist arrivals in policy cities but does not increase local tourism foreign exchange earnings. Tourist arrivals exhibit no spatial spillovers, whereas tourism revenues display positive spillovers within a 450–850 km range that attenuate beyond. Drawing on signaling theory, we argue that visa policies play both functional and symbolic roles in shaping tourist perceptions. The findings underscore the need for spatially attuned, signal-sensitive tourism policies to maximize regional economic impact.