Epistemic derisking: Knowledge infrastructures in energy finance

Over the past decade, governments have increasingly sought to mobilise private capital for expanding renewable sources of energy for the goals of decarbonisation and energy security. While existing research has focused on the financial and regulatory tools that states deploy to reduce investor perceptions of risk, scant attention has been paid to the role of knowledge infrastructures in energy finance. In this article, we address this gap by analysing how government energy models and scenarios are deployed to attract private sector investments for energy infrastructure projects. Using interview data and document analysis centred on a transnational expert network of energy modellers, we examine how government energy planning processes are reconfigured in response to new uncertainties and demands for risk mitigation from private finance. We develop the concept of epistemic derisking to capture how knowledge infrastructures are leveraged by states in efforts to mobilise private capital. Our findings show that energy models and scenarios are leveraged in efforts to reduce perceived risk less through their technical content than by what they signal about long-term stability in policy ‘vision’, consensus among energy systems stakeholders, and institutional capacity to manage change and uncertainty in energy systems. In addition, scenario outputs and project pipelines function as marketing devices within competitive financing landscapes. We explore how epistemic derisking operates within wider struggles over knowledge and authority in global energy governance. The article contributes to debates on green finance, energy futures and expertise, while raising critical questions about the limits of private finance-oriented decarbonisation strategies.