Street-Level Turnover, Human Resource Policy Reforms, and Outcomes in Complex Public Organizations

The public sector is experiencing a hiring crisis. This challenge is particularly evident in organizations that manage complex service delivery while facing sustained high turnover rates. Such organizations have, therefore, implemented multiple policy changes to improve employee stability with a limited understanding of how they affect retention and performance. This study analyzes 9 years of child welfare services data from one U.S. state to explore the relationship between frontline turnover and service outcomes, while accounting for the broader influence of professional identity and workforce capacity. The results show that the turnover-outcome relationship was weak and contingent on goal proximity. Additionally, a hiring policy change to address turnover by expanding the labor pool but ignoring professional identity further exacerbated human capital instability. The paper highlights the need to consider policy context and potential effects on professional identity when implementing changes to address turnover and encourage retention in complex public organizations.