Either with us or against us: The threat of rebel group fragmentation to demobilized rebels

Programs to disarm and demobilize former combatants are standard features of peace agreements, but demobilized rebels face many challenges. I document a threat to demobilized rebels that emerges when rebel groups fragment, namely, selective violence by splinter groups. Why do splinter groups target demobilized rebels? While previous research on risks for this population has emphasized stigmatization or criminality, I argue that rebel splinter groups selectively target demobilized members of their parent group owing to their skills, experience, and potential for intelligence sharing. I analyze the pattern of violence against demobilized members of the FARC, a major rebel group in Colombia. Areas where FARC splinter groups emerged saw increased rates of violence against demobilized FARC rebels; this violence disproportionately affected demobilized rebels compared with other civilians, and activity by other armed groups did not have similar effects. These findings highlight an understudied channel through which rebel fragmentation threatens peace agreements.