Variety Over Frequency: How Cross-Genre Attendance Relates to Donor Progression in Arts Festivals

Arts organizations face intense competition for private support, making effective donor segmentation essential. While attendance frequency is a well-known correlate of giving, little research has quantified the role of event variety—the breadth of engagement across program genres—in shaping donor behavior. Using a 26-year longitudinal dataset from a major multi-genre European arts festival, this study examines whether event variety is a stronger predictor of donor value than attendance frequency and identifies the variety level associated with stronger donor progression. To this end, we extend a latent-class Markov mixture model by incorporating lifetime event variety as a behavioral covariate. Our results show that attending four or more event genres is associated with a higher probability of transitioning into high-value donor states. These findings highlight event variety as a practical metric for donor segmentation and development in arts fundraising.