Caught in the middle: Welfare expansion without coordinated industrial relations? Evidence from German care services

Working conditions in the care services have long been the subject of controversial debates in Germany (and across Europe). Based on a multi-method approach, this article examines the evolving dynamics of industrial relations in early childhood education and care and long-term care subsectors, highlighting differences in job quality improvements and the role of collective bargaining in Germany within broader welfare trajectories and transnational labour dynamics. While both subsectors have historically had weak industrial relations, the childcare sector has made significant progress, with strong evidence of social partners using bargaining power to enhance job quality. In contrast, long-term care remains more conservative, characterised by policies promoting defamilialisation through marketisation and non-regulated migrant live-in care work with high shares of for-profit and religious non-profit providers contributing to weak interest representation. The comparison highlights Germany as a case caught between social democratic welfare policies and fragmented industrial relations, showing how this duality shapes job quality in both subsectors differently.