The Evolution of Democratic Values in China: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in an Authoritarian Regime

This study explores the evolution of democratic values among Chinese citizens over the past few decades, offering insights into how democratic values develop within authoritarian regimes. Democratic values are conceptualized as the belief in an equal government-people relationship and the belief in the independence of branches of government. These beliefs correspond to the core principles of democracy, including popular sovereignty, the separation of powers, and checks and balances. The Age-Period-Cohort Interaction model is applied to analyze five waves of nationally representative surveys conducted in China between 2002 and 2019. The results reveal distinct temporal effects across the age, period, and cohort dimensions. Age effects are significant in shaping beliefs in an equal government-people relationship. Period effects show a decline in democratic values during the 2010s compared to the 2000s, coinciding with the period of Xi Jinping’s rule. Cohort effects indicate that members of Generation Z do not exhibit higher levels of democratic values than those born in earlier cohorts. However, individuals born between 1971 and 1985 display a higher level of belief in the independence of branches of government. The findings indicate the need to reassess the complex dynamics of value change, both in contemporary China and globally.