Shifting Demographics, Shifting Perceptions: How Race and Politics Shape Reactions to the Majority-Minority Future

Racial minorities are expected to be a majority of the U.S. population by 2044. We examined predictors of Americans’ perceptions towards this racial demographic shift (RDS), how accurately they estimate others’ perceptions, and whether an intervention corrects people’s misperceptions. In Study 1, in a nationally representative sample (N=1,600), most Republicans, Independents, and Democrats viewed the RDS as neutral or good. Being White, conservative, a 2020 Donald Trump voter, and endorsing racist attitudes, competitive and dangerous worldviews, predicted more negative perceptions. Meanwhile, having racially diverse social networks and positive feelings for racial minorities predicted more positive perceptions. In Study 2, a pre-registered experiment on Prolific (N=819), Republicans underestimated other Republicans’ and Democrats’ perceptions of this shift. An information-based intervention corrected this, with this effect lasting one week later, albeit weaker. Our research suggests that emphasizing more positive ingroup perceptions of RDS may help correct misperceptions and increase support for racial diversity.