The gradual return of balance of power politics: Emerging bipolarity, China’s escalated balancing, and China–US rivalry

The shifting dynamics of power between the United States and China are reshaping the international system, giving rise to an emerging bipolar structure. This evolving strategic landscape prompts important questions regarding the mechanisms of balancing within international relations and the relevance of balance of power theory in understanding contemporary great-power competition. By synthesising two existing frameworks – internal versus external balancing and soft versus hard balancing – this article introduces a new conceptual model that distinguishes between incremental and prompt balancing. The article contends that, since the 2010s, China has shifted from an incremental balancing strategy to a highly-intensive prompt balancing approach, employing a mix of economic, military, and diplomatic tactics to counter US dominance. This escalated balancing effort has been driven by a narrowing power gap and a profound change in the nature of the bilateral relationship, as China increasingly asserts its great-power status on the global stage.