Armed conflicts and the expansion of old-age pensions in the Global South

This article examines the impact of armed conflicts on the expansion of old-age pension systems in the Global South. Using new longitudinal data on pension coverage and focusing on 82 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America between 1900 and 2014, the study combines descriptive analyses and logit regressions to assess the timing and likelihood of pension expansion during war and post-war periods. The analysis reveals that the probability of pension expansion increases during and particularly after war. Interestingly, the association is especially robust for civil wars. Post-war pension expansions are typically directed towards dependent workers, while self-employed groups benefit less. The results suggest that governments often use pension reforms as instruments of stabilisation and legitimacy in war-torn societies. The study contributes to comparative welfare research by highlighting the warfare-welfare nexus beyond the Western world and across different types of conflict.