New Actors in Arms Procurement in the South Caucasus: The Azerbaijan–Armenia Arms Race after the Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh

Despite Azerbaijan’s full control over Nagorno-Karabakh, the South Caucasus remains a region marked by persistent tensions and conflict. A new arms race has emerged between Armenia and Azerbaijan, one that includes actors previously uninvolved in the region’s military dynamics. Historically, Russia has served as a major arms supplier to Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Russia’s influence and capacity as a key arms provider in the South Caucasus have diminished. Consequently, both Yerevan and Baku have sought alternative sources to meet their defence needs. Armenia has significantly expanded its arms purchases from India and France. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to procure weapons from traditional suppliers such as Türkiye and Israel, but it has also diversified its sources to include the Czech Republic, Italy, and Pakistan. This shift raises several critical questions: What factors are driving this new arms race? In what direction is the militarisation of the South Caucasus evolving? What are the strategic motivations and objectives of the arms buyers and sellers in this emerging dynamic? Furthermore, how might the capabilities of these newly acquired weapons influence the balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia? Employing a descriptive-analytical methodology, the authors argue that these developments are likely to push the South Caucasus toward renewed conflict. By examining these trends and their potential consequences, this article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the region’s evolving security landscape.