The Changes in Housing Prices and Fertility Levels in Chinese Cities—From the Perspectives of the Incentive Effect and the Crowding-Out Effect

Quantitative analysis of the impact of housing prices on fertility levels in Chinese cities is an important step for promoting high-quality economic development. Achieving balanced urban population growth in China will also contribute to sustained and healthy social and economic development. This paper presents empirical research based on panel data from 284 prefecture-level and higher cities in China, covering the period from 2010 to 2022. The research examines both incentive effect and Crowding-out effect. It uses regression models, mediating effect models, and threshold effect models. The study reaches the following conclusions: First, the increase in housing prices initially leads to a decline in fertility rates, followed by an increase. This suggests a positive “U”-shaped relationship. The declining part of the curve is significantly larger than the increasing part, and the results have passed rigorous robustness and endogeneity tests. Second, from the income perspective, in cities where housing prices have risen, labor, capital, and technology have grown significantly, helping to mitigate the decline in fertility. The contribution of the mediating effect of technology expenditure is 9.45%, making it an effective variable. Third, from the consumption perspective, in cities with high housing prices, as per capita GDP rises, the negative impact of housing prices on fertility strengthens. Therefore, this paper also provides four key recommendations for urban development to reduce the negative effect of housing prices on fertility levels.