How Sino-US Relations Shape Global Sentiments Toward the Belt and Road Initiative: Examining the Moderating Roles of “Value Conflict” and “Reciprocal Benefit”

This study analyzes 6,245 news articles from 437 media outlets (2013–2024) to assess global sentiment toward the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) amid Sino-U.S. relations. Based on a cluster analysis of UN voting records, countries are grouped into four political stances: pro-China, pro-U.S., neutral-U.S., and neutral-China. Correlation analysis show pro-U.S. countries show more negative sentiment toward the BRI, while pro-China countries show more positive sentiment. Notably, this study introduces two moderating variables to the alignment with U.S./China and BRI sentiment relationship—value conflict and reciprocal benefit. The results show value conflict strengthens the negative association between alignment with U.S. and the BRI sentiment in neutral-China countries, while reciprocal benefit strengthens the positive association between alignment with China and the BRI sentiment in pro-China and neutral-U.S. countries. Findings indicate strengthening the BRI’s global support requires engaging neutral countries and emphasizing the reciprocal benefits of participation.