Does Education Reduce Residential Carbon Emissions? An Empirical Study Based on Income Moderation and Group Heterogeneity

Education is widely recognized as a key driver of human development, yet its environmental implications remain ambiguous. Existing studies provide conflicting evidence on whether education mitigates or exacerbates carbon emissions. Grounded in STIRPAT Model, Human Capital Theory, and Behavioral Economics, we propose a dual-mechanism framework to explain how education influences household carbon emissions. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we employ baseline regression, threshold regression, and interaction moderation analysis to examine these mechanisms empirically. This study reveal that education influence carbon emissions through two distinct mechanisms: the “green effect,” which enhances environmental awareness and promotes low-carbon practices, and the “consumption effect,” whereby higher education levels lead to increased income and consumption, potentially raising emissions. The effect of education is significantly moderated by income. There is a significant difference in the effect of education on carbon emissions between whether or not to accept higher education. A four-quadrant analysis based on higher education attainment and income level confirms that only high-income, highly educated residents exhibit a significant carbon-reducing effect of education, whereas other groups are primarily influenced by income-driven consumption. This study provides an explanatory framework and empirical evidence for the complex impact of education on carbon emissions within the Chinese context, proposing differentiated mitigation policies tailored to various social groups to promote an efficient low-carbon transition.