Energy affordability and thermal comfort in Mexico: Analysis across 13 climatic zones

Households in socially marginalized settings often face disproportionate energy burdens to attain thermal comfort, driven by weak building envelopes, climatic stress, and uneven tariff structures. This study quantifies those burdens across Mexico's climatic diversity using dynamic building simulations (TRNSYS) for a non-insulated reference household at 13 locations spanning Köppen climate types. We estimate hourly heating/cooling loads, translate them into electricity use with fixed COPs (3.2 cooling; 2.8 heating), and monetize costs under location-specific CFE residential tariffs. Annual electricity consumption ranges from 3924 to 7377 kWh per household (mean 5910 kWh), with cooling accounting for ∼53% of use. Despite universal residential status, effective prices diverge markedly ($0.064–$0.182 USD/kWh), reflecting subsidy rules tied to summer temperatures rather than year-round thermal needs; colder sites incur up to 371% higher costs than heavily subsidized warm regions. Coupling energy results with state-level income data (ENIGH 2022) shows that 77% of modeled cases would require >10% of annual household income for thermal comfort, reaching 44% in extreme instances (e.g., Puerto Escondido). The work contributes a portable assessment framework that fuzes high-resolution thermal simulations with socioeconomic indicators, enabling more equitable targeting of subsidies and retrofits in climates with contrasting heating and cooling demands. Findings are broadly transferable to other countries confronting climatic heterogeneity, constrained housing quality, and subsidy misalignment.