Climate-related disasters and temperature extremes are not associated with conflict risk in Pacific Island countries

Concerns about climate change and conflict are ubiquitous. Systematic research on the climate-conflict nexus in the Pacific is lacking, despite the region’s high vulnerability to climate change as well as several past episodes of political instability. Using a new dataset, we analyze the impact of climate-related disasters and temperature extremes on social conflict events in Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. According to theoretical expectations, climate change should engender more social conflicts, for instance due to intensified grievances, resource competition (especially about land), and rural-to-urban migration. The results indicate that in the three countries studied, disaster shocks and temperature extremes do not noticeably affect conflict risks, even after controlling political, economic, and environmental context factors. Major cities, commonly considered most prone to climate-related conflicts in the region, do also not experience higher conflict risks following disasters. These findings indicate that Pacific Island countries may be more resilient to climate-related conflict risks than commonly assumed.