Geospatial prioritization for land degradation restoration: a 37-year assessment of the Syrian coastal region

Abstract The Mediterranean region faces accelerating soil degradation from climate change and human pressures. The Syrian coastal region, a vital socio-ecological zone in the eastern Mediterranean, lacks a science-based framework to prioritize land restoration under Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) targets. We integrated the UNEP-PAP/RAC diagnostic framework with multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1985–2022) and 248 field validation sites. Analyses included land degradation mapping, conservation priority assessment (using 14 socio-economic and biophysical variables), land use/land cover (LULC) change detection, and NDVI trend analysis. Approximately 17.53% (764.76 km 2 ) of the coastal landscape is actively unstable, with sheet erosion dominant. Spatial prioritization identified 6.77% (295.26 km 2 ) as "Unstable High Priority" zones requiring urgent intervention. LULC analysis revealed a 197.5% expansion of urban areas and a critical 71.2% loss of closed needleleaf forests over 37 years. NDVI trends exhibited an "anthropogenic greening" paradox: mean NDVI increased by 44%, but this was driven by agricultural intensification, masking ongoing degradation of natural forest ecosystems. This study delivers a replicable geospatial tool for targeting soil conservation and restoration efforts, directly supporting LDN implementation and sustainable land management policies in data-scarce Mediterranean coastal regions. The framework can guide resource allocation and enhance environmental regulation in vulnerable zones.