Forecasting health expenditures in Iran 2030

Abstract Background: Forecasting health expenditures is essential for achieving sustainable financing and Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2030. This study examines historical trends in Iran's health expenditures from 2001 to 2021 and projects future spending to guide policymakers. Methods: Using data from the National Health Account, we employed the ARIMA model to forecast the Total Health Expenditure (THE), Current Health Expenditure (CHE), Public health expenditure, Private health expenditure, and Out-of-Pocket payments (OOP) in Iran for 2022–2030. We used Python for implementation, with log transformation, stationarity checks, model selection via AIC, and validation using 2019–2021 as test set. Results: The optimal ARIMA models were identified (e.g., (2,2,0) for THE, AIC = -31.75, MAPE = 21%). THE is projected to reach 84,821,160,000 million IRR by 2030. Public helth expenditure shares increase, OOP decreases, supporting UHC progress but requiring reforms to control expenditure growth and improve equity. Conclusions: Accurate forecasting can aid policymakers in planning resources and addressing funding gaps to achieve UHC. Efforts should focus on reducing OOP expenditures, enhancing efficiency, and equity in health financing.