Differentiated peak pathways and driving factors of industrial CO2 emissions at the provincial level in China

Abstract Industrial sector is the primary source of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Research on industrial carbon peaking and its drivers play a fundamental role on formulating emission reduction measures. The provincial industrial CO 2 emissions were calculated from 2000 to 2021 in China. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was employed to quantitatively measure the contributions of industrial output, industrial structure, energy intensity, and energy structure to the changes in emissions. The results show that: 1) During the research period, the industrial CO 2 emissions of various provinces experienced differentiated growth processes. Among those 11 provinces have already achieved industrial CO 2 emission peak. 2) Industrial output value and energy intensity are the essential driving forces affecting industrial CO 2 emissions, while the contributions of industrial structure and energy structure to CO 2 emissions are relatively low. Spatio-Temporal differences exist in the contributions of various influencing factors. 3) 9 provinces have proactively peaked their emissions by improving energy efficiency, optimizing structure in energy use and industrial structure. While 2 passively emission declined provinces reduce emissions through a decline in industrial output value. 4) The provinces that have not yet reached their peak emissions are mainly industrial provinces, energy based provinces and developing central-western provinces. Their industrial output value has been steadily increasing, and the inhibitory effect of energy intensity and energy structure on CO 2 is relatively low. Only under the low-carbon scenario can they almost achieve carbon peaking by 2030. The paper discusses industrial emission reduction strategies by controlling "super emitters" provinces, formulating differentiated emission reduction measures based on influencing factors, and practicing a low-carbon development path.