Agricultural production diversity in four countries of the Baltic Sea Region: prospects for resilient food systems and food security

Abstract Background The agricultural landscape of the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) is becoming more dominated by large farms. This might impact the Agricultural Production Diversity (APD), with consequences for food system resilience and food security. This study investigates whether changes in the agricultural landscape from 2000 to 2020 impacted the APD in Finland, Sweden, Poland and Latvia. Method The APD is estimated using production data and the Shannon Diversity Index. Correlations between the diversity and five indicators associated with landscape changes are tested and analysed. Results The results show that the diversity increased in the case of Poland, while it decreased in Latvia. For Sweden and Finland, the trend was weak but positive during the studied time period. Moreover, no universal patterns of correlation within the four countries are found, and there is no evidence that landscape changes impact the APD. Three possible explanations for what might impact the APD are discussed within the context of the BSR. Conclusions This study reveals that there is no clear connection between farm enlargement and changes in the APD in the four studied EU countries of the BSR. This partly contradicts findings in similar studies and reveals the complexity of how changes in the agricultural landscape might impact production diversity, food system resilience and food security.