The association between mobility and crime in England and Wales

Purpose: This study provides the first national-level longitudinal analysis directly linking mobility data to police-recorded crime across local authorities in England and Wales, while controlling for stable structural differences between places. Its purpose is to examine how changes in human mobility are associated with changes in crime, taking advantage of the disruption in mobility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Negative binomial regression models were applied across 328 local authorities from March 2020 to October 2022, with area fixed effects, to assess how mobility across different activity spaces relates to police-recorded crime while accounting for unobserved, time-invariant local characteristics. Results: The exploratory and modelling analyses showed that the mobility-crime relationship varied considerably by offence type and across local authorities. Increased residential mobility was consistently associated with lower levels of property, violent, and public order crimes, while mobility around retail, grocery, transit, and workplace areas was generally associated with higher crime once stable local differences were controlled. Sensitivity analyses suggested the results are robust to plausible levels of unobserved confounding. Conclusion: The impact of mobility on crime during and after the pandemic in England and Wales was not uniform but was shaped by local conditions and time-invariant characteristics. The findings underline the need for place-specific approaches in crime prevention and suggest that mobility-related interventions should be tailored to the structural and social context of each area. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-026-00291-z.