IGRF-14 secular variation prediction from core surface flow acceleration

Abstract: generation of the IGRF. Given the recent evidence in the geomagnetic SV record for core surface waves, we forecast SV based on the periodic behaviour of core surface flow acceleration. We obtain an advective core surface flow model, in terms of poloidal and toroidal flow coefficients, from spatial gradients of SV geomagnetic virtual observatory data from the low-Earth orbiting CHAMP and Swarm missions from January 2001 to January 2010, and April 2014 to January 2024, respectively. From these, we calculate the flow acceleration coefficients from the first time-derivative. This assumes the flow is spatio-temporally simple, without imposing any physical constraints on its geometry. We fit each acceleration coefficient with a sinusoidal function, which is used to extrapolate 6 years into the future. These sinusoidally varying acceleration time series are integrated over time to obtain the core flow coefficients, which are then used to predict the average advected SV over the 5-year IGRF period. We recreate previous IGRF predictions using our CHAMP-based flows to validate our methodology, which we find to outperform previous IGRF iterations, and use the Swarm-based flows to forecast the SV for IGRF-14. Our Swarm-based model predicts sudden changes in SV-also known as geomagnetic jerks-in 2024 in the Equatorial Pacific, and in 2028 in the region around central Africa. Although the IGRF SV is a snapshot over a 5-year period, allowing for periodic behaviour offers potential improvements over other methods of prediction. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40623-025-02347-x.