Candidate geomagnetic field models for IGRF-14 and secular acceleration since 2020

Abstract IGRF-14 is the fourteenth generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), a spherical harmonic model of Earth’s main magnetic field and its secular variation, developed through international collaboration under the auspices of the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA). This paper describes the development, in October 2024, of candidate main field (MF) models at epochs 2020.0 and 2025.0, and a secular variation (SV) model at 2025.0, derived from Swarm satellite data, as well as the validation of the SV model using ground-based observatory measurements. Swarm data collected through May 2025 were subsequently used to update the continuous parent model from which these candidates were derived, which now spans 2014.42 to 2024.92. This model is used to conduct a retrospective assessment of SV performance and to analyze recent secular acceleration (SA) signals. Our results reveal a pronounced SA pulse centered in 2022 and provide evidence for a geomagnetic jerk in 2024, confirmed by recent observatory data from Western Europe and North America. These rapid, nonlinear core field changes have already contributed to the early degradation of the IGRF-14 SV forecast, underscoring the challenges of modeling geomagnetic field evolution and the importance of continuous satellite and ground-based observations. Graphical Abstract